Morning Brief: WTI at $104.24 After GDP/PCE, Ahead of the Cost and PMI Tests

Barber and Lyon distinguish two event-study measurements. A cumulative abnormal return (CAR) adds each period's sample return minus its expected return. A buy-and-hold abnormal return (BHAR) instead subtracts the compounded benchmark return from the compounded sample return. The first records summed period-by-period deviations; the second compares terminal wealth. Neither is a Gann formula. We can apply both to a prespecified calendar inspection window without claiming the date caused a move. For an editorial two-day example, let BTC be the sample and ETH the one-for-one peer benchmark. Suppose BTC returns +20% then -20%, while ETH returns +10% then -10%. Daily abnormal returns are +10 and -10 percentage points, so CAR is zero. But $100 held in BTC becomes $100 × 1.20 × 0.80 = $96. The same amount held in ETH becomes $100 × 1.10 × 0.90 = $99. BHAR is -3 percentage points, or $3 less terminal wealth per $100 initial stake. The two series need aligned daily closes and an identical starting timestamp. Freeze the two-day window before reading prices. Show both the summed deviations and the pair of terminal wealth values. A zero CAR does not mean the two investments ended with equal wealth.

Try it

Synthetic two-day window: BTC returns +20% then -20%; ETH returns +10% then -10%. Treat ETH as a one-for-one expected-return proxy. Find each daily abnormal return, CAR, both ending values from $100, and BTC-minus-ETH BHAR in percentage points.

Limits

Barber and Lyon analyze long-run stock-event inference, not crypto or Gann dates. BTC and ETH are not a fitted market model, and a two-day paired proxy is only a measurement demonstration. Neither CAR nor BHAR establishes causation, a calendar effect, or a trading edge. Coincidence of event and move is not a test against unmarked dates.

Source

Barber and Lyon, Detecting long-run abnormal stock returns (1997), Journal of Financial Economics 43(3), printed p. 344, equations (1) and (2) and Section 2.1 opening paragraph (PDF page 4). Peer-reviewed original article, Barber and Lyon (1997), pp. 341-372; University of Colorado-hosted journal PDF. Its sample is historical U.S. equities, not crypto or Gann dates.

Today

At the Oct 30 00:00 UTC completed boundary, BTC closes Oct 27–29 were $80,799.51, $81,249.31, $77,780.33; ETH closes were $2,347.01, $2,356.89, $2,248.34. CAR was +0.472 percentage points, while compounded $100 became $96.26 in BTC and $95.80 in ETH, a +0.467-point BHAR. Align the dated price marks and inspection window on one BTC chart; this peer comparison does not imply a Gann effect. Coinbase BTC-USD versus ETH-USD, aligned completed UTC daily closes, Latest session 2026-10-30T00:00:00Z: CAR=100*sum(BTC_close_t/BTC_close_previous - ETH_close_t/ETH_close_previous); BHAR=100*(product(BTC_close_t/BTC_close_previous)-product(ETH_close_t/ETH_close_previous)) = 0.4674408443846687 percentage points BHAR (inputs: CAR_percentage_points=0.4718208773005772, btc_close_2026_10_27_usd=80799.51, btc_close_2026_10_28_usd=81249.31, btc_close_2026_10_29_usd=77780.33, btc_ending_wealth_per_100_usd=96.2633684288432, btc_return_day_1_pct=0.5566865442624636, btc_return_day_2_pct=-4.269550104487041, eth_close_2026_10_27_usd=2347.01, eth_close_2026_10_28_usd=2356.89, eth_close_2026_10_29_usd=2248.34, eth_ending_wealth_per_100_usd=95.79592758445852, eth_return_day_1_pct=0.4209611377880673, eth_return_day_2_pct=-4.605645575313222). Data source 1 Data source 2

An astrological chart often reduces a body to one ecliptic longitude. That coordinate cannot tell you where Io appears beside Jupiter. Horizons observer-table quantity 6 instead measures the satellite against its primary in the observer's plane of sky. X is Io's right-ascension difference from Jupiter multiplied by the cosine of Jupiter's declination; Y is their declination difference. Both are in arcseconds. A negative X puts Io west of Jupiter's center, while a positive Y puts it north. Horizons also prints SatPANG, the counter-clockwise angle from north toward the Jupiter-to-Io line. Use a synthetic row to see the geometry. If X is -30 arcseconds and Y is +40 arcseconds, the approximate projected center offset is sqrt(30 squared + 40 squared), or 50 arcseconds. The direction is northwest, and atan2(X,Y) modulo 360 gives about 323.13 degrees. Keep the signed X and Y, not only the 50-arcsecond summary, because the same distance can describe different sides of Jupiter. A new observer center or timestamp changes the view. Preserve both when comparing rows.

Try it

In a synthetic geocentric Horizons quantity-6 row for Io, X = -30 arcseconds and Y = +40 arcseconds. Find the approximate projected center separation, the quadrant relative to Jupiter, and the position angle counter-clockwise from north.

Limits

These are projected geocentric offsets, not zodiac positions or three-dimensional orbital separation. A projected overlap alone cannot distinguish a transit, occultation, or eclipse; read the Horizons visibility code. A same-time Coinbase candle is a price comparator, not evidence that Io moves BTC.

Source

NASA/JPL, Horizons System Manual, Definition of Observer Table Quantities, quantity 6, X & Y satellite offset & position angle. Primary NASA/JPL Solar System Dynamics manual, version 4.98e (August 25, 2026).

Today

At Oct 30 10:55 UTC, Horizons geocentric Io had X=+22.284 arcsec and Y=-8.581 arcsec (southeast of Jupiter), a 23.879-arcsec projected offset and 111.06° position angle; Horizons prints 111.060° and visibility code *. The completed BTC minute at the same UTC instant closed $77,603.35. Put the timing mark and BTC price at that timestamp on one chart. This geometry does not predict price. JPL Horizons Io relative to Jupiter, Earth-centered; Coinbase BTC-USD completed minute, As of 2026-10-30T10:55:00Z: sqrt(X_arcsec**2 + Y_arcsec**2); check atan2(X,Y) modulo 360 against Horizons SatPANG = 23.879074877390035 arcsec (inputs: ang_sep_arcsec=23.8794, btc_close_usd=77603.35, computed_position_angle_deg=111.06042265201214, io_x_arcsec=22.284, io_y_arcsec=-8.581, satpang_deg=111.06). Data source 1 Data source 2